Supercell’s game Clash of Clans is on trending news for the past few weeks. Definitely one of the reasons is its Town Hall 15 update, but there is another handy discussion in the scene. It’s about the Clash of Clans Loot Forecaster site. For a long time, this site has been in the talks for citing loot data in different regions. Based on time, active players, and conditions, the site gives the data. Over the last 5 years, a lot of questions on this have been repeatedly asked, where answers were not exactly accurate in some cases. In this article, we’ll be discussing the Clash of Clans Forecaster and dig deeper into the website.
Clash of Clans Forecaster: Basic Overview
The Clash of Clans Forecaster is a tool designed for predicting loot in different regions around the world. However, when we say ‘predicting’, the site is based on behavior based on the game population, time of day, the gaming habits of users, etc. It forecasts the relative amounts and numbers of unharvested mines and collectors in Supercell’s Clash of Clans. Clash of Clans Forecaster simulates player habits around the world. This is to provide an overall view of the quality of raids you can expect to find in the game. So, in simple words, it’s a prediction algorithm based on time zones and estimated active players.
How does Clash of Clans Loot Forecaster work
Compare this to your weather prediction data. Both are predictions and can be inaccurate at times. The Clash of Clans Forecaster website clearly mentions that it does not rely on any Supercell data.
This site relies only on ‘predicted’ behavior based on several social studies, and how the mines/collectors fill. From these derive a model predicting how many will be online (cannot be attacked, and collect resources), and how many are offline (can be attacked and resources fill up). That’s what is shown in the graph: how many bases are available and the derived amount of resources, summed up.
Dividing Game Activity
The website groups players into three different age groups: Children, Young Adults, and Adults. Their schedules are taken into consideration, and the time they spend on the game is predicted. As an example, the website gives a description of a Young Adult. Young Adults are involved in general schedules which include a job, performing basic errands, and activities later in the day and evening such as partying and other entertainment.
In the next classification, each of the three age groups is further broken into three subgroups which are: Rare, Moderate, and Extreme players. The description is different for all these players; hence the amount of activity is also different. Rare players do not play the game frequently and may only sign into their base a few times a day at opportune times such as waking up, lunch, evening, etc. Moderate players play more often than Rare players but not quite as much as Extreme players. Extreme players play very often and usually have the game open a large portion of the day.
This simulation takes into account all of these schedules and applies them appropriately to three types of days: Weekdays, Weekends, and Holidays. All of the holidays for all regions of the world are also taken into consideration because people usually play more often on holidays. So, you can see changes in the data on weekends compared to weekdays.
How accurate is Clash of Clans loot forecaster
The simulation schedules used are extensive. On a daily basis, it is pretty accurate. In this model, you are simultaneously predicting what is happening on a regular basis within the game. The predictions involve a lot of user activities in a particular region. When you study the user activity, it becomes very predictable after a certain period. So, you can predict activity at a time in different regions on a consistent basis. However, when you climb to higher leagues, data is not accurate as you like it to be. Leagues such as for example, Legend, you can’t be right about data as players will involve in more activity in a day.
Statistical analysis of Clash of Clans Forecaster
The website shows you numbers and boxes which seem to confuse anyone who’s not into stats. On the top left corner, we have a small reading called Loot Index, this is the evaluation of the loot you’re expected to find on a scale of 1-10.
Then on the immediate right of it, we have the box named Farmer’s Forecast. It is a simple summary of the loot data and the availability of the same in the next few hours.
Clash of Clans Forecaster also has the Worldwide Stats feature, which shows some advanced terms like Player Data and loot minutes. Along with this is the Most Active Regions feature which shows the top activity amongst regions.
Understanding Loot Index
Loot Index is a measure of loot on a scale of 1-10. At a certain period, the loot index can be Low or High depending on the user activity.
A loot Index of 10 is measured to be EXCELLENT, which shows that you have a greater probability of farming good loot in this period. Similarly, a Loot Index rating of 5 is considered to be DECENT which is an indication of getting decent loot and bases. However, a Loot Index rating of 1 is considered POOR and the probability of getting good loot is slim in this case.
All the activity displayed in the Loot Index is directly on the basis of Player activity. In a chart, you see three rows indicating different graphs. Time is on the x-axis, which of the region you are visiting the site from. In the y-axis is the loot available. Calculation of loot index is by using the charts. For example, if the Loot Index is at 7.4 just like in the image, the probability of finding good loot is high. It is because of the fewer active players at the time with also fewer bases with shields/guards on.
The Clash of Clans Forecaster allows you to access the complete 24-hour graph on the loot available. This helps us to pre-plan our raiding time. For instance, if you’re planning on boosting your barracks, you can judge what the best time would be. On the basis of the graph comes the region ranking, which indicates players active in a certain region. It also includes data like Online Players, Offline Players, Shielded Players, and Attackable Players.
This is a unique representation of showing the loot balance of a particular region. In another column, there is a % display of the loot percent of the world. This is what the website gives the description:
To provide a measurable value of the information we’re interested in, which is how much loot is available in any given base, a unit of the measure had to be created which is called Loot Minutes. Loot Minutes show how much loot has accumulated within a base over time. Therefore, 1 Loot Minute represents the loot an unattacked base has accumulated in 1 minute.
The rules for Loot Minutes are simple to understand: Every base in the entire game produces 1 Loot Minute every minute. Whenever a player opens their game or if they already have the game open, they typically collect their resources, thus consuming any Loot Minutes they had accumulated. Many players (but not all) also typically attack shortly after they sign on which consumes another player’s Loot Minutes. The simulation takes into account that many people prefer to next a decent number of times before attacking in order to find a base with large amounts of loot easily available.
If you are keen to try out the Clash of Clans Loot Forecaster, you can check their site here. Want to build strong Town Halls? Check our guides below!
So, that’s all about the Clash of Clans Forecaster. What is your opinion on this site? Do let us know in the comments below.